Forecasting COVID-19 cases Using ANN

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges to global healthcare systems, necessitating accurate and timely forecasting of cases for effective mitigation strategies. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to predict COVID-19 cases using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), harnessing the power of machine learning for epidemiological forecasting. Our ANNs-based forecasting model has demonstrated remarkable efficacy, achieving an impressive accuracy rate of 97.87%. This achievement underscores the potential of ANNs in providing precise and data-driven insights into the dynamics of the pandemic. However, this paper underscores the critical importance of a comprehensive evaluation beyond accuracy, including metrics such as sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC), to assess the model's performance robustness. The research paper offers detailed insights into the architecture of the ANN model, encompassing critical hyperparameters, data preprocessing techniques, and regularization strategies employed to optimize model accuracy. Ethical considerations surrounding data privacy and potential biases within the COVID-19 dataset are also addressed. While the achieved accuracy is a significant milestone, this study underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of the pandemic, necessitating continuous model refinement and validation. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of considering false positives and false negatives in the context of public health decision-making. In conclusion, this research contributes to the arsenal of tools available for pandemic management by showcasing the potential of ANNs in COVID-19 case forecasting. It encourages ongoing exploration and adaptation of predictive models to enhance their applicability in real-world public health scenarios, ultimately contributing to more effective pandemic control and response efforts

A Framework for QKD-based Electronic Voting

This paper deals with the security aspect of electronic voting (e-voting) by introducing quantum key distribution (QKD) to the e-voting process. This can offer an extremely high level of security that can be very beneficial for some significant e-voting tasks. Moreover, a framework for the integration of the QKD with the e-voting system is proposed. The Helios voting system, which is considered as one of the open-source and major voting systems, has been chosen for this integration. Investigation of the main design aspects of building a QKD-based e-voting system has been done. Thus, the expected advantages and limitations of the proposal are discussed and analyzed

Prevalence and factors associated with dengue fever among febrile patients attending secondary health facilities in Kano metropolis, Nigeria

Background: The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has categorized dengue fever as a priority epidemic-prone disease. Kano metropolis is a hub for international trade and has seen rapid population growth with unplanned urbanisation. This provides the right environment for dengue virus transmission and spread. Most fevers in Nigeria and Kano in particular are treated as malaria or typhoid. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and factors associated with dengue fever and dengue-malaria co-infection among febrile patients in Kano metropolis. Methodology: We conducted a hospital-based cross-sectional study among febrile patients attending secondary health facilities in Kano metropolis. We used multistage sampling technique to recruit 440 participants into the study. An interviewer administered structured questionnaire was used to collect participants’ information, while blood was screened for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kit and tested for dengue fever using an ELISA kit for dengue IgM. Data was cleaned and analysed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Epi Info version 7.2 to calculate frequencies, proportions and odds ratios. Results: The median age of participants was 24 years (IQR= 13-36 years) while the age-group most represented was the 10-19 years’ age group with 97 (22.9%) participants. Males constituted 257 (60.6%) while most were single 238 (56.1%). Dengue IgM was positive for 332 (78.3%), while malaria RDT was positive for 81 (19.1%) and 67 (15.8%) were positive for both. Those aged above 25 years were less likely to present with dengue fever (OR=0.6; 95% CI=0.33-0.97). Dengue fever contributes a high percentage to febrile illnesses seen in Kano metropolis. Significant proportions of febrile patients have both dengue and malaria co-infection. None of the participants had dengue as a presumptive diagnosis. Conclusion: These findings imply dengue fever should feature as a prominent differential for febrile illnesses and dengue screening tests should be made available for all cases seen in Kano. Keywords: seroprevalence; dengue fever; RDT; secondary health facilities; Nigeria French Title: Prévalence et facteurs associés à la dengue chez les patients fébriles fréquentant les établissements de santé secondaires de la métropole de Kano, au Nigéria Contexte: Le Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) a classé la dengue parmi les maladies à tendance épidémique prioritaires. La métropole de Kano est une plaque tournante du commerce international et a connu une croissance démographique rapide avec une urbanisation imprévue. Cela fournit le bon environnement pour la transmission et la propagation du virus de la dengue. La plupart des fièvres au Nigeria et à Kano en particulier sont traitées comme le paludisme ou la typhoïde. Cette étude visait à déterminer la prévalence et les facteurs associés à la dengue et à la co-infection dengue-paludisme chez les patients fébriles de la métropole de Kano. Méthodologie: Nous avons mené une étude transversale en milieu hospitalier auprès de patients fébriles fréquentant des établissements de santé secondaires de la métropole de Kano. Nous avons utilisé une technique d'échantillonnage en plusieurs étapes pour recruter 440 participants dans l'étude. Un questionnaire structuré administré par un intervieweur a été utilisé pour collecter les informations des participants, tandis que le sang a été testé pour le paludisme à l'aide d'un kit de test de diagnostic rapide (TDR) et testé pour la dengue à l'aide d'un kit ELISA pour les IgM de la dengue. Les données ont été nettoyées et analysées à l'aide de Microsoft Excel 2016 et d'Epi Info version 7.2 pour calculer les fréquences, les proportions et les rapports de cotes. Résultats: L'âge médian des participants était de 24 ans (IQR=13-36 ans) tandis que le groupe d'âge le plus représenté était le groupe d'âge 10-19 ans avec 97 (22,9%) participants. Les hommes en constituaient 257 (60,6%) tandis que la plupart étaient célibataires 238 (56,1%). Les IgM de la dengue étaient positives pour 332 (78,3%), tandis que les TDR du paludisme étaient positifs pour 81 (19,1%) et 67 (15,8%) étaient positifs pour les deux. Les personnes âgées de plus de 25 ans étaient moins susceptibles de présenter une fièvre dengue (OR=0,6; IC à 95%=0,33-0,97). La dengue contribue à un pourcentage élevé des maladies fébriles observées dans la métropole de Kano. Des proportions significatives de patients fébriles présentent une co-infection à la fois par la dengue et le paludisme. Aucun des participants n'avait de dengue comme diagnostic présumé. Conclusion: Ces résultats impliquent que la dengue devrait apparaître comme un différentiel important pour les maladies fébriles et des tests de dépistage de la dengue devraient être disponibles pour tous les cas observés à Kano. Mots-clés: séroprévalence; la fièvre de la dengue; RDT; établissements de santé secondaires; Nigeri

Role of three dimensional (3D) printing in endourology: An update from EAU young academic urologists (YAU) urolithiasis and endourology working group

The management of nephrolithiasis has been complemented well by modern technological advancements like virtual reality, three-dimensional (3D) printing etc. In this review, we discuss the applications of 3D printing in treating stone disease using percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) and retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS). PCNL surgeries, when preceded by a training phase using a 3D printed model, aid surgeons to choose the proper course of action, which results in better procedural outcomes. The 3D printed models have also been extensively used to train junior residents and novice surgeons to improve their proficiency in the procedure. Such novel measures include different approaches employed to 3D print a model, from 3D printing the entire pelvicalyceal system with the surrounding tissues to 3D printing simple surgical guides.publishedVersio

Global Variations in the Mineral Content of Bottled Still and Sparkling Water and a Description of the Possible Impact on Nephrological and Urological Diseases

Kidney stone disease (KSD) is a complex disease. Besides the high risk of recurrence, its association with systemic disorders contributes to the burden of disease. Sufficient water intake is crucial for prevention of KSD, however, the mineral content of water might influence stone formation, bone health and cardiovascular (CVD) risk. This study aims to analyse the variations in mineral content of bottled drinking water worldwide to evaluate the differences and describes the possible impact on nephrological and urological diseases. The information regarding mineral composition (mg/L) on calcium, bicarbonate, magnesium, sodium and sulphates was read from the ingredients label on water bottles by visiting the supermarket or consulting the online shop. The bottled waters in two main supermarkets in 21 countries were included. The evaluation shows that on a global level the mineral composition of bottled drinkable water varies enormously. Median bicarbonate levels varied by factors of 12.6 and 57.3 for still and sparkling water, respectively. Median calcium levels varied by factors of 18.7 and 7.4 for still and sparkling water, respectively. As the mineral content of bottled drinking water varies enormously worldwide and mineral intake through water might influence stone formation, bone health and CVD risk, urologists and nephrologists should counsel their patients on an individual level regarding water intake

Global Variations in the Mineral Content of Bottled Still and Sparkling Water and a Description of the Possible Impact on Nephrological and Urological Diseases

Kidney stone disease (KSD) is a complex disease. Besides the high risk of recurrence, its association with systemic disorders contributes to the burden of disease. Sufficient water intake is crucial for prevention of KSD, however, the mineral content of water might influence stone formation, bone health and cardiovascular (CVD) risk. This study aims to analyse the variations in mineral content of bottled drinking water worldwide to evaluate the differences and describes the possible impact on nephrological and urological diseases. The information regarding mineral composition (mg/L) on calcium, bicarbonate, magnesium, sodium and sulphates was read from the ingredients label on water bottles by visiting the supermarket or consulting the online shop. The bottled waters in two main supermarkets in 21 countries were included. The evaluation shows that on a global level the mineral composition of bottled drinkable water varies enormously. Median bicarbonate levels varied by factors of 12.6 and 57.3 for still and sparkling water, respectively. Median calcium levels varied by factors of 18.7 and 7.4 for still and sparkling water, respectively. As the mineral content of bottled drinking water varies enormously worldwide and mineral intake through water might influence stone formation, bone health and CVD risk, urologists and nephrologists should counsel their patients on an individual level regarding water intake

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Metocean Climate Impact on the Fatigue Assessment of a Jacket-Type Offshore Platform

When the offshore oil and gas supplies exhaust, most offshore platforms are decommissioned and removed. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the fatigue damage that will occur during the service life of a jacket-type offshore platform using different fatigue approaches in particular locations. The locations considered for this metocean climate impact study were Norway (North Sea), Portugal (Atlantic Ocean - Leixões) and Italy (Adriatic Sea). A finite element model was created by the means of Sesam and two different fatigue analysis, deterministic and spectral, were applied. For the fatigue assessment, an appropriate description of the site-specific wave environment, during the jacket platform service life, must be accomplished. This description is usually provided by a wave scatter diagram. Wave scatter diagrams usually represent the long-term wave environment during a (typical) year and are based on several years of site-specific data to ensure that they adequately represent the wave environment at the location of the structure. In this thesis, the comparison between these fatigue approaches will serve as a pilot study for planned reliability analysis in decommissioned offshore platforms in order to maximize the reuse of these platforms for future wind generation systems